OUTLOOK: Though many felt 2008-09 was a down year for the Big Ten, the league
still managed to have one of its own play for the national championship, and
another win the NIT. In all, seven teams won at least 20 games and one squad
eclipsed 30 wins. The 31-7 mark posted by Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans
was not only aided by a banner year in the Big Ten, but also a deep run in the
NCAA Tournament which culminated with a championship game appearance against
the North Carolina Tar Heels. Unfortunately for the Spartans they came up
short in that tilt (89-72), but to say the 2008-09 season was a memorable one
for MSU and its frenzied fan base would be an understatement. Penn State
(27-11) went on to the claim the NIT crown, while Purdue (27-10), Illinois
(24-10), Ohio State (22-11), Minnesota (22-11), Michigan (21-14) and Wisconsin
(20-13) all enjoyed successful seasons. Northwestern (17-14) wound up with a
winning record, but had bouts of inconsistency and closed the year with a
three-game losing streak. Iowa (15-17) had a tough time of it all season long,
while the poorest team in the league was Indiana (6-25), which won just one of
its 18 conference games.
There may be some teams that pull off a few surprises here and there in
2009-10, but the top of the Big Ten standings will likely be littered by the
same cast of characters as last year. Michigan State and Purdue should battle
back and forth for league supremacy, with Ohio State, Michigan and Illinois
all making overtures at some point. In the end, expect the Spartans to win
their second straight Big Ten title and to do everything in their power to
make another impressive run in the NCAA Tournament.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Michigan State
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
1 Michigan State, 2. Purdue, 3. Ohio State, 4. Michigan, 5. Illinois, 6.
Minnesota, 7. Wisconsin, 8. Northwestern, 8. Penn State, 10. Indiana, 11.
Iowa
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
MICHIGAN STATE - The Spartans won their first Big Ten title since taking four
straight from 1998-2001, and reached their fifth Final Four in 11 seasons by
combining efficient offensive production with stellar defensive play. While
two of the team's more productive guys (Goran Sutton and Travis Walton) have
moved on, the overall talent level of this year's club has coach Izzo and the
MSU faithful thinking another banner year awaits. Start with PG Kalin Lucas
(14.7 ppg, 4.6 apg), who is one of the better floor generals in the country.
Add senior forward Raymar Morgan (10.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and junior guards Durrell
Summers (8.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg) and Chris Allen (8.4 ppg) to the mix and Michigan
State will be a dangerous team to deal with throughout the 2009-10 campaign.
Izzo brought in a couple of wide bodies in Derrick Nix and Garrick Sherman,
but both will likely be asked to provide solid defense in the low post rather
than take on a significant scoring role, at least early on. One guy to keep an
eye on is 7-0 junior Tom Herzog, who if he develops quickly could become one
of the better frontcourt players in the conference. As has been the case just
about every year of Izzo's tenure, the Spartans will play stifling defense and
win the rebounding battle most nights. The non-conference schedule is littered
with challenges, as MSU faces Gonzaga, Florida, North Carolina and Texas prior
to the start of league play. While there are some question marks, most notably
up front, Michigan State should once again be the cream of the crop in the Big
Ten this season.
PURDUE - The Boilermakers won 25 games in 2007-08, and followed that up with a
27-win campaign last season. Despite falling short of its goal of winning the
Big Ten, Purdue and its coach Matt Painter, are hoping to change its fortunes
this time around and will rely heavily on three juniors to lead the way. Guard
E'Twaun Moore (13.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.0 apg), center JaJuan Johnson (13.4 ppg,
5.6 rpg) and forward Robbie Hummell (12.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg) each have the talent
to carry the team from night to night, but it will take a collective effort to
get the Boilermakers to the top of the Big Ten heap. Hummell is a well-rounded
player who has been hampered by injuries in the past, so his health will go a
long way in determining how far this Purdue team goes. Sophomore PG Lewis
Jackson (5.9 ppg, 3.3 apg) will be the guy who runs the show for Painter's
club, while senior guard Keaton Grant (7.9 ppg) should help add some stability
up front. Save for a trip to the U.S. Virgin Islands for the Paradise Jam in
late November, a home game against Wake Forest, a trip to Alabama and another
home date with West Virginia, the Boilermakers should be in a favorable spot
once the meat of the conference slate rolls around.
OHIO STATE - With the Big Ten's top returning scorer in the fold, Thad Matta's
Buckeyes could challenge for the league championship this season. Evan Turner
finished the 2008-09 campaign with an impressive stat line of 17.3 points, 7.1
rebounds and 4.0 assists per game, helped immeasurably by a .503 FG
percentage and the ability to make those around him better. His supporting
cast this year includes guards William Buford (11.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg) and Jon
Diebler (11.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.5 apg), and along with junior swingman David
Lighty (9.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg) should help Ohio State realize most of its goals.
Diebler is the team's sniper from long range, while Lighty is the club's top
defender. Add 6-8 junior Dallas Lauderdale to the equation and the Buckeyes
will likely cause fits for all who oppose them. Staying healthy and playing
solid defense will be the keys to any success the Buckeyes achieve this
season. Despite a few tough outs early (North Carolina, either Cal or Syracuse
and Florida State), OSU's non-conference schedule lines up rather favorably.
The Big Ten slate will offer more than its share of pitfalls, but Matta will
surely have his Buckeyes primed for a late-season run that may culminate in a
shot at the conference crown and invite to the NCAA Tournament.
MICHIGAN - The Wolverines come into the 2009-10 season with arguably the best
one-two punch in the Big Ten, as Manny Harris (16.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 4.4 apg) and
DeShawn Sims (15.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg) are both poised to elevate their respective
games, and the team's as a whole, to a level hopefully worthy of conference
superiority. Help for Harris in the backcourt is expected to come from Zack
Novak, Laval Lucas-Perry and Stu Douglas -- all capable shooters who need to
show more consistency. Up front, Sims will likely handle the bulk of the
scoring, but coach John Beilein is hopeful that freshman Jordan Morgan will
have recovered from summer knee surgery to contribute sooner rather than
later. In addition, senior Zack Gibson will lend support, although he will
likely contribute more at the defensive end than he will on offense. Freshman
Darius Morris is a gifted point guard who will be expected to run the show and
make sure the slew of sharp-shooters in the lineup get the ball in favorable
positions on the floor. Michigan lives and dies by the outside shot as
evidenced by the fact that the team shot 281 more three-pointers last season
than did its opponents. The Wolverines' biggest early-season test will come
against No. 1 Kansas on the road in mid-December, although a trip to Utah
won't be easy, nor will a potential early tournament matchup against either
Marquette or Xavier.
ILLINOIS - Bruce Weber's Fighting Illini surprised quite a few folks by
finishing in a tie for second place in the Big Ten last season, and while that
kind of success breeds a renewed sense of confidence, it also comes with
heightened expectations. The club boasts the return of three double-digit
scorers in the form of Demetri McCamey (11.5 ppg, 4.6 apg), Mike Davis (11.3
ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Mike Tisdale (10.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg), and all three will be
asked to have an even bigger impact this year. Some highly regarded newcomers
also figure to be included in the mix, as guards Brandon Paul and D.J.
Richardson have the skills to be the next great backcourt duo in Champaign.
McCamey is a gamer who wants the ball every time down the court, while Davis
is simply a well-rounded player who finished second in the conference last
season in rebounding. Expect Illinois to play stingy defense and while there
may not be a superstar on the roster, there are enough solid players to make
the night miserable for many an opponent. It won't take long for the Illini to
see just what they're made of, as the non-conference schedule is daunting
indeed with foes like Utah, either Oklahoma State or Bradley, Clemson,
Vanderbilt, Georgia, Missouri and Gonzaga all expected to give Weber's club a
run for its money. The good news is that Illinois opens the season with four
straight home games, and will play seven of its first 10 in front of the
Champaign faithful.
MINNESOTA - When Tubby Smith arrived in Minneapolis a couple of years ago,
Golden Gopher fans were ecstatic. They knew it would take some time for their
beloved team to become a force in the Big Ten, and last year's 21-win campaign
and NCAA Tournament bid was certainly a step in that direction. The 2009-10
version of the Minnesota basketball team lacks identifiable scoring, at least
at the outset, as only Lawrence Westbrook (12.6 ppg) averaged double figures
last season. Still, there are some talented guys that Smith and the UM
faithful hope will rise to the occasion, notably senior Damian Johnson (9.8
ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.0 bpg) and freshman Royce White (Minnesota's Mr. Basketball in
2008-09). Complementing Westbrook in the backcourt will be junior point guard
Al Nolen (6.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.3 apg), while up front big things are expected
from junior Paul Carter (5.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg) who should see his numbers go up
with increased minutes. The early schedule isn't all that difficult and should
have the Gophers in similar position to last year when they opened the season
12-0. However, this team simply isn't on par with the Big Ten's elite, so to
expect a serious run to the top of the league standings is asking a bit too
much.
WISCONSIN - As has been the custom since Bo Ryan took the reigns of the
Wisconsin men's basketball program earlier this decade, the Badgers rely
primarily on strong defense to win games. That said, it would be nice to have
some consistent offensive production to lean on from time to time, and that's
just what the Badgers hope to get from guys like Trevon Hughes (12.1 ppg, 2.8
apg) and Jason Bohannon (10.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg) this season. Both shot around 38
percent from the field last year so it will be interesting to see if they are
capable of raising their respective games. The only other proven commodity at
this point is 6-10 junior Jon Leuer (8.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg), an athletic big man
who should have a fine season, provided he muscles up against some of the
stronger low post players in the Big Ten. Some of the fresh faces to keep an
eye on include Jared Berggren and Mike Bruesewitz, a pair of skilled
frontcourt performers who could make an immediate impact if they aren't
intimidated by the whole big-time college experience. The Badgers' two
toughest games out of the chute are against Arizona (in Hawaii) and Duke (at
home), so we should know alot about Ryan's club in the first month or so.
Wisconsin won't find itself in position to challenge for the conference crown,
but with their style of play, the Badgers are likely to be a thorn in the side
of many a foe throughout the 2009-10 campaign.
NORTHWESTERN - Kevin Coble is one of the more capable scorers in the Big Ten.
Unfortunately for him and the rest of the Wildcats, there isn't a whole lot
else in the cupboard. Coble (15.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.5 apg) is as consistent a
performer as you'll find in the conference, as he shot 47.2 percent from the
field last season and is expected to be the leader of this team in this, his
senior year. Junior Michael Thompson (9.9 ppg, 3.7 apg) will run the show from
the point, and he will be expected to produce at both ends of the floor as he
is the perfect complement to Coble. Other capable guys litter the NU roster,
with sophomore John Shurna (7.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg) and 7-0 sophomore Kyle Rowley
(3.6 ppg, 1.8 rpg) the most likely candidates to have their respective games
take off with a year of seasoning under their belts. Rowley in particular
needs to establish himself from the get-go after seeing action in all 31 games
last year, but not really adding much in the way of offensive production. Even
if Coble and Thompson load the team on their backs, the 'Cats will be hard-
pressed to finish in the upper half of the Big Ten standings. That's not to
say they won't have their moments, but in the end a glaring lack of talent and
depth will prove to be their undoing, and that could spell the end of coach
Bill Carmody's time in Evanston. We shall see.
PENN STATE - The Nittany Lions are coming off a record-setting season in which
they established a new program high for wins (27) while also capturing their
first-ever national tournament title (NIT). Coach Ed DeChellis is hoping that
the momentum established by last year's success carries over into this new
season, although his team will have to find a way to produce offensively as
only one double-digit scorer returns. Talor Battle (16.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 5.0
apg) could vie for Big Ten Player of the Year honors as he is that good.
Unfortunately for Penn State, that's pretty much it in terms of proven
performers. No other returning player averaged more than 6.2 ppg in 2008-09,
so someone, or a few someones, will need to step up in an effort to take some
of the pressure off Battle. Andrew Jones (6.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg) could be the guy,
or it could be sophomore Chris Babb, or perhaps forwards David Jackson and
Andrew Jones will rise to the occasion. There are a couple of talented
newcomers to Happy Valley, including Houston native Tim Frazier and versatile
swingman Bill Edwards -- although Edwards recently suffered a knee injury and
is expected to miss the first month or so. The Nittany Lions won't sneak up on
anyone this season, but if some of the questions surrounding the team get
answered early, and more importantly -- favorably, it could be another
successful year for Penn State.
INDIANA - Having won just once in Big Ten play last season and only six times
all year, the Hoosiers endured one of the worst seasons in school history.
Coach Tom Crean knew it was going to take time to restore Indiana back to
national prominence, but right now the goal is simply conference relevance.
Indiana should win more than it did in 2008-09, and it will be guard Devan
Dumes who will be expected to lead the team back from the dead. Dumes averaged
12.7 ppg last season, leading the Hoosiers in three-pointers (59) and he shot
better than 41 percent from the floor overall. However, he had nearly twice as
many turnovers as assists so ball control will be important for the 6-2 senior
this season. Joining Dumes in the IU backcourt will be Verdell Jones III (11.0
ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.6 apg), a 44.5 percent shooter from last year who could see
his role expanded, particularly if the guys up front don't establish
themselves early on. Tom Pritchard (9.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg) should be better after a
freshman year in which he played out of position. Crean did a terrific job
recruiting, with the biggest prizes being 6-5 guard Maurice Creek and 6-9
forward Derek Elston, both of whom have the talent to make an immediate
impact. The Hoosiers open the season with a couple of softballs (Howard and
USC-Upstate) before taking their act to Puerto Rico for a few. We should know
a little more about the Hoosiers by then, and they will need to exceed
expectations if they are going to survive a brutal three-game stretch in which
they will face Maryland, Pittsburgh and Kentucky -- a scary proposition for
any team.
IOWA - Hawkeye fans are hoping the third year is the charm, as coach Todd
Lickliter's tenure in Iowa City thus far has been anything but productive, or
enjoyable. In fact, the 36 losses endured by the team under Lickliter have
exceeded any two-year run of futility in school history. The loss of several
key components to the team has definitely hurt, but Lickliter is optimistic
about this year and beyond, and hopes the fans will continue to exercise
patience. The Hawkeyes will rely heavily on a couple of sophomores this
winter, as guards Matt Gatens and Anthony Tucker bring their combined 21.2
points and 6.8 rebounds per game back to the fold. No other returnee averaged
more than 4.8 points or 3.8 caroms per contest, so the hope is that someone
rises to the occasion, particularly in the frontcourt where the Hawkeyes will
likely be at a distinct disadvantage on most nights. Junior Jarryd Cole could
become a force if he develops his offensive game, while freshman Brennan
Cougill could be asked to step in and contribute from the outset. Other key
additions include Cully Payne and Devon Archie, the former really being the
only true point guard on the roster and the latter expected to lend Cole a
hand in close to the basket. Quite a bit has to go right for the Hawkeyes to
climb up the Big Ten ladder, and it will be interesting to see if any of the
aforementioned players can elevate their game enough to make a difference.
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